The 14 month average payroll figure is tracking around the immigration B/E. The consensus has firmed around this level accordingly. Econoday shows an interesting chart of “as reported” payrolls and they have tracked the 0 to 200 window over the same period. This comparison to the revised data shows the silliness of the conspiracy theorists. The reality is the number must now begin to track a 200 handle. With an average miss of close to 98k the heavily hyped data set remains the least exciting of the macro inputs.
Only a slight boost is needed to get to the threshold that would allow the focus to move to more forward looking data, despite the Fed’s “targets”. At this stage of the cycle, monetary aggregates, C&I loan reports, ISMs and retail sales should far outshine Employment for attention.
2013 has kicked off with some encouraging signs of normalization in term structures. Serious economic atrophy in Europe has been masked by much improved governmental funding rates. MENA remains a mess and could slip into chaos. Where have we heard this before? Oh ya, at this time LAST year. Since the statistical window for the number is 82k to to 275k and the last few sessions have seen moderate liquidation…we recommend a strategy for 8:32et from our Pit days- its called You First.