On Dimes

The 10 yr has been very stable around 2.75 for a while and equity markets have appropriately partied during that time. The air pocket, trading halt, robot gang bang that is the NFP release is not the 3 minutes to try and make rational decisions but here is a decent guide for tomorrow.

Last week’s close in the 10 year note was 124.17..amazingly (to non-believers) that is the “mid-point” of the POC (point of control) window on the present Hooper Model pattern. After making a new high over last week, the market dropped and turned negative below 124.13 (124.20 out- how ya gonna get that on NFP?). This action, higher than last week’s high and down on the week is what we call a “weekly down.” For obvious reasons, this is a liquidation pattern. For the same reasons, to go back above 124.17 (124.20 w slippage for Hooper) is a STRONGER move since positions have to be re-established.

Our advice is to avoid as much interaction with the market as you can (its not easy) until a few minutes after the data drop. Then, utilize this very reasonable window as a directional guide. If a linear day unfolds (up or down), we would then look for an “inside nested” [ By this we mean if market is down Fri. it would be marginally higher on Mon] day on Monday to continue the move. If the market moves outside the Friday range, the action will falter more quickly. The SP has an opposite set up around 1858 but the window is somewhat wider. Enjoy.

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