thecontrariancorner.com

Why Are We Talking About Stocks?

Kevin — Tue, 21 May 2013 12:31:07 +0000

Everything important about the capital markets is happening in bonds.

The Corp Bond market is having a roaring May. As we stated after the refunding, several weeks of limited Treasury supply would be filled with corp activity if confidence had returned to the business sector. Behind Apple and Berkshire Hathaway announcements a massive 11B Petrobras issue was placed. Convertible Securities are all the rage (like 1986 and 1987) and Syndicated Loans are hot. 315B in IG bonds have been placed this year, +36% from last year and 125B in structures formerly called “high yield”. [For more Archive back to "Low Yield.." from 2 weeks ago]

Richard Fischer of the Dallas Fed said yesterday that, “QE makes rich people richer.” We have always argued that QE suppresses volatility and compresses spreads such that IF confidence increases market participants will act accordingly. As the US deficit has declined and the Gov issuance trend turned, Corps have picked up their pace – exactly as it should be and reflected in equity indexes. Key word: REFLECTED..the stock planets revolve around the debt Sun.

We call this the Carpet Crawl (showing our age) phase of the cycle. “You gotta get in to get out.” As the Neo-inflationists found out, you can’t TIVO the economic cycle ahead to the good parts. Whatever yield rising, spread widening Fed tapering Hoot-n-Nanny is coming, we have to do this first.

S&P Trading Levels 21 May

tradingpoints — Tue, 21 May 2013 10:35:31 +0000

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size)

S&P Globex 6:35 AM

Classical Tuesday

debrink — Tue, 21 May 2013 09:41:32 +0000

On the economic calendar:-

07:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:55 Redbook
11:30 4 Week Bill Auction

POMO:-

10:15 – 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up to $3.50 billion

Speaking today:-

10:00 Treasury Secretary Lew
11:30 FOMC Member James Bullard
13:00 FOMC Member William Dudley

S&P Trading Levels 20 May

tradingpoints — Mon, 20 May 2013 12:18:07 +0000

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size)

S&P Globex 8:15 AM

30 Year Treasury Trading Levels 20 May

tradingpoints — Mon, 20 May 2013 12:14:49 +0000

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size)

30 Yr Treasury 8:15 AM

Germany DAX Trading Levels 20 May

tradingpoints — Mon, 20 May 2013 10:49:49 +0000

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the Cash Index on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size) Current Hooper Quant Model Levels for the DAX here.

DAX Cash Index 10:35 GMT

Classical Monday

debrink — Mon, 20 May 2013 09:59:12 +0000

On the economic calendar:-

08:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

11:00 4 Week Bill Announcement

11:30 3 Month Bill Auction

6 Month Bill Auction

POMO:-

10:15 – 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases up $1.75 billion

Speaking today:-

08:00 Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke

13:00 FOMC Member Charles Evans

What We’re Watching

Kevin — Fri, 17 May 2013 12:53:55 +0000

The Bond market (and by that we mean treasury futures) has exhibited several weeks of significant action while the world focused on the Equity “Fall Up.” [The Upitulation in @Fearlicious speak]
Bonds had a Weekly Down (a higher than previous week high and settle lower on week) followed by a Negated Weekly Up (lower low, up on week, settle back below) and are now working right around the weekly again.
Above 132.02+ and 145 in Notes and Classics would constitute a weekly up and a sign to buy weakness Monday. However, Negated moves are MORE powerful (as last week showed) because the crossing takes participants out of positions prior to the actual settlement.
Today’s session is very important. Watch for activity to increase as/if those levels approach/breach.

S&P Trading Levels 17 May

tradingpoints — Fri, 17 May 2013 11:45:21 +0000

Support & Resistance Levels for multiple time-frames on the annotated charts below. (Click on graphs to enlarge. May need to click a few times to get to full size)

S&P Globex 7:45 AM

Germany DAX Trading Levels 17 May

tradingpoints — Fri, 17 May 2013 10:51:05 +0000

DAX Cash Index 10:35 GMT