Category Archives: Blog

Classical Tuesday

 30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 upside retracements
 downside retracements
 regression channels
price support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
07:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:55 Redbook
10:00 Existing Home Sales (Consensus 5.10 M, Estimize 5.01 M v Prior 5.05 M)
11:30 4 Week Bill Auction
POMO:-
10:15 – 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $1.40 – $1.70 billion

Classical Monday

 30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 upside retracements
 downside retracements
 regression channels
price support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
11:00 4 Week Bill Announcement
11:30 3 Month Bill Auction
          6 Month Bill Auction
POMO:-
10:15 – 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $$1.00 – $1.25 billion
Speaking today:-
10:00 Jerome Powell

Classical Friday

 30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 upside retracements
 some possible targets
 downside retracements
 regression channels
price support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
08:30 Housing Starts (Consensus 1.010 M, Estimize 1.024 M v Prior 0.956 M)
09:55 Consumer Sentiment (Consensus 84.4 v Prior 84.6)
Speaking today:-
08:35 Janet Yellen
Overnight Block Trades:-

What Just Happened?

The markets went haywire yesterday and the explain-a-palooza has been in full gear. Here’s the angle we are coming from: Its all about the positions.

We have, ad nauseum, railed against the “openness” policy at the Fed and the tethering and jawboning of expectations expressed in forward market prices. Essentially, The Fed promulgated a universal position then watched it blow up. The market, in fact, was conservative in its evaluation of FG. Now Fed Talking Heads are backtracking.

PIMCO WG (with Gross) and Janus AG (after Gross), are just 2 examples of positioning large to FG. Long the Eurodollar Strip and short the Vol was buying into FG whole hog. When the market repriced rather than slowly roll up over time, things got weird.

We, and many others, have also warned that FI desks have been gutted as regulatory and reality changes have altered the PD/bank landscape. The CME Group may laud the VOLUME but the massive Open Interest drop and price spike show there is no LIQUIDITY.

Remarkably, we are to believe that a sudden 100 BP shift in the color coded Eurodollars over a month and a 450k drop in open interest -IN A DAY ! – resulted in no P/L damage to anyone. We are going out on a limb here..Somebody got hurt…BAD. We’ll find out who and how bad over the next few months.

Dysfunctional markets are driven by liquidation and It’s always about the positions. I’d love to see a damaged speculator sue the Fed for following their guidance. Now lets see who wants to come back and play again.

Classical Friday

 30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 upside retracements
 downside retracements
 regression channels
price support and resistance levels
On the economic calendar:-
08:30 Jobless Claims (Consensus 290 K, Estimize 285.5 K v Prior 287 K,)
09:15 Industrial Production (Consensus 0.4%, Estimize 4% v Prior -0.1%)
09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Philadelphia Fed Survey (Consensus 20.0, Estimize 21.7 v Prior 22.5)
          Housing Market Index (Consensus 59 v Prior 59)
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Report (Estimize 3.295 B v Prior 3,205 B)
11:00 EIA Petroleum Status Report (Estimize 3,091 K v Prior 5,015 K)
          3 Month Bill Announcement
          6 Month Bill Announcement
          30 Year TIPS Announcement
16:00 Treasury International Capital
16:30 Fed Balance Sheet
          Money Supply
POMO:-
10:15 – 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $0.15 – $0.25 billion
Speaking today:-
08:00 Charles Plosser
12:15 Esther George
12:30 Dennis Lockhart
13:00 James Bullard
14:30 Naryana Kocherlakota
Overnight Block Trades:-