Category Archives: Blog

Buy Bonds, They Said

The recent new highs in the Bond Classic and Ultra contracts came with a host of “this time is different” and war fear mongering explanations. The truth is the Note market was skeptical of these claims. We looked for divergences as the long weekend started. The most glaring warning sign was the dis-interest of the belly as long bonds spiked higher.

This morning, the world is still a complicated orb but the manufacturing news is robust. The contract roll is over. The “owners” look more like “renters”. Bonds may garner all the attention but keep your focus on the belly.

Classical Tuesday

 30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 upside retracements
 downside retracements
 longer term downside retracements
 regression channels
price support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
08:30 Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
09:45 PMI Manufacturing Index (Consensus 57.8 v Prior 55.8)
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index (Consensus 56.8 v Prior 57.1)
11:00 Global Manufacturing PMI
          4 Week Bill Announcement
11:30 3 Month Bill Auction
          6 Month Bill Auction
13:00 Gallup US ECI
POMO:-
None today

Classical Friday

 

 30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 upside retracements
 downside retracements
 regression channels
price support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
08:30 Personal Income (Consensus 0.3% v Prior 0.4%)
          Consumer Spending (Consensus 0.2% v Prior 0.4%)
09:45 Chicago PMI (Consensus 56.4 v Prior 52.6)
09:55 Consumer Sentiment (Consensus 80.5 v Prior 79.2)
POMO:-
None today

Classical Thursday

 

 30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 some extensions
 downside retracements
 regression channels
price support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
08:30 GDP (Consensus 4.0% v Prior 4.0%)
           Jobless Claims (Consensus 300 K v Prior 298 K)
           Corporate Profits
10:00 Pending Home Sales Index (Consensus 0.5% v Prior -1.1%)
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Report (Consensus 9 v Prior 9)
          3 Month Bill Announcement
          6 Month Bill Announcement
13:00 7 Year Note Auction
15:00 Farm Prices
16:30 Fed Balance Sheet
          Money Supply
POMO:-
None today

Classical Wednesday

 30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 upside retracements
 downside retracements
 regression channels
price support and resistance
 
On the economic calendar:-
07:00 MBA Purchase Applications
10:30 EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:30 2 Year FRN Auction
13:00 5 Year Note Auction
POMO:-
10:15 – 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $0.95 – $1.15 billion