Category Archives: Blog

Classical Monday

30 minute atr

240 minute atr

daily atr

daily pivots

weekly pivots

upside retracements

downside retracements

regression channels

support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
09:45 PMI Services Flash (Consensus 59.5 v Prior 58.6)
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey (Consensus -12.0 v Prior -17.4)
11:00 4 Week Bill Announcement
11:30 3 Month Bill Auction
          6 Month Bill Auction
13:00 2 Year Note Auction

 

Classical Thursday

30 minute atr
240 minute atr
daily atr
daily pivots
weekly pivots
upside retracements
downside retracements
break-down
regression channels
support and resistance
 
On the economic calendar:-
08:30 Jobless Claims (Consensus 286 K v Prior 294 K)
09:45 PMI Manufacturing Index (Consensus 56.0 v Prior 55.3)
          Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 New Home Sales (Consensus 518 K v Prior 539 K)
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 3 Bill Announcement
          6 Month Bill Announcement
          52 Week Bill Announcement
          2 Year Note Announcement
          2 Year FRN Note Announcement
          5 Year Note Announcement
          7 Year Note Announcement
13:00 5 Year TIPS Auction
16:30 Fed Balance Sheet
          Money Supply

Classical Wednesday

30 minute atr

240 minute atr

daily atr

daily pivots

weekly pivots

upside retracements

downside retracements

caught in a range

support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
07:00 Mortgage Applications
09:00 FHFA House Price Index (Consensus 0.6% v Prior 0.3%)
10:00 Existing Home Sales (Consensus 5.045 M v Prior 4.88 M)
10:30 EIA Petroleum Status Report

Here’s the Thing

Greg Ip is wrong.

Yesterday, veteran economics reporter and former Greenspan mouthpiece (he was Jon Hilsenrath before Hilsenrath #GIK) Greg Ip penned a story explaining that the Fed had already tightened. A litany of anecdotal evidence was presented to support the theory. The base idea was: By vocalizing their intent, the Fed had nudged markets to the future event pricing and done the Fed's lifting for them. If only.

In fact, beyond Treasury/Corp spreads widening, there is scant evidence of market "tightening." Futures prices (forward forwards) have been wary to stray far from the well advertised Fed exit plan. Consider a path with NO Fed jawboning - the way things used to be . Markets would have dropped bond prices, widened spreads and flattened the curve. As Europe crumbled for the umpteenth time, oil prices collapsed (because there's too much of it) [causing the large amount of speculative notes issued in the space to falter] and the US data slipped, rates would adjust lower some until a clearer view of the future emerged.

Well I'll be damned. That's exactly what transpired. Never mind that the most basic gauge of "tightening" - the Bank Lending Survey - continued to show accommodative tilt throughout the zigging and zagging. No, Mr. Ip, the Fed has not already tightened by flapping at the lip. Markets have not done the heavy lifting for them. Our core theme of a Structurally Trapped economy continues to evolve as the Liquidity Trapp-ers change their story. And some start to make things up.