The markets went haywire yesterday and the explain-a-palooza has been in full gear. Here’s the angle we are coming from: Its all about the positions.
We have, ad nauseum, railed against the “openness” policy at the Fed and the tethering and jawboning of expectations expressed in forward market prices. Essentially, The Fed promulgated a universal position then watched it blow up. The market, in fact, was conservative in its evaluation of FG. Now Fed Talking Heads are backtracking.
PIMCO WG (with Gross) and Janus AG (after Gross), are just 2 examples of positioning large to FG. Long the Eurodollar Strip and short the Vol was buying into FG whole hog. When the market repriced rather than slowly roll up over time, things got weird.
We, and many others, have also warned that FI desks have been gutted as regulatory and reality changes have altered the PD/bank landscape. The CME Group may laud the VOLUME but the massive Open Interest drop and price spike show there is no LIQUIDITY.
Remarkably, we are to believe that a sudden 100 BP shift in the color coded Eurodollars over a month and a 450k drop in open interest -IN A DAY ! – resulted in no P/L damage to anyone. We are going out on a limb here..Somebody got hurt…BAD. We’ll find out who and how bad over the next few months.
Dysfunctional markets are driven by liquidation and It’s always about the positions. I’d love to see a damaged speculator sue the Fed for following their guidance. Now lets see who wants to come back and play again.
A tweet from a really solid follow – @interestarb – highlighted one of the topics we covered in Dallas with Blake Morrow and Wizetrade. The astute @interestarb noted the insane popularity of peripheral European bonds at paltry yields. In Dallas, I referenced the early 80′s when yields well above the nominal growth rate were shunned. Henry Kaufman – Dr. Doom -of Solomon Bros. (#GIK) coined the phrase “Certificates of Confiscation.” As the young pit broker for Dean Witter Reynolds cash desk, I was sometimes asked for an opinion- usually when the desk was well under water. “I think they trade well, I’d say,” sheepishly hedging. “I think we should buy some.”
“Someone tell the kid, we don’t buy this stuff.” would be the jab over the Hoot-n-Holler. An entire generation of traders knew only how to short.
Flash forward to today. Bonds of dubious heritage and zero/negative real rates are hoarded. ETF products promulgate the “renter” class for the asset. Several years ago, I coined the term CANs, for Capital Appreciation Notes. This is what happens at cycle peaks and troughs. In fact, it MUST happen. The universe self corrects, And we don’t buy.
Last week’s completed Down Weekly Patterns:
Sp – Naz – Euro and Corn
Completed UP (weekly):
10 Yr – 30 yr
New Pattern for SP below. The Thursday and Friday sessions were almost identical. The breach of the bearish POC occurred before the recalculation, however.
Since we have a lot of new people behind the curtain now – thanks for checking in all – here’s an update on The Dog’s view.
The WEEKLY SPZ pattern completed a short from 1990 to 1948.90 Wed/ Thur. At the minimum 2/3 covered at objective and stop moved down to 1976.50 until close and New Pattern tonite.
On the DAILY – the POC was 1950.50 to turn up looking for 1980 and stop is 1948. Good risk.
Hooper Drives the Boat, Chief
10 year working on 4th day of unchanged value. The market has tagged just outside the POCs and stalled on the prior sessions. The trap gap between 124.18 and 23 has earned its name. The upside is looking for 125.06
The SP completed the downside pattern yesterday and has a new matrix.
“Bond King” Bill Gross abdicated the throne of the empire he built to avoid a revolution. Gross’ behavior has tilted toward the odd since the peak in Fed QE/LSAP activity. The ElErian departure was only Act II.
Rumors are now flying that the Stamp Collecting Cat Lover will take the other side of PIMCO’s massive positions for his new firm. The reality is most traders that find themselves in new employ, or trading their PA, reload the position that got them into trouble – often with great result. Just ask Jon Corzine.
We predicted early in 2014 that the King’s reign was over and a fall was coming. Obviously, we thought it would be Mr. Market that would lead the revolt. Instead, it was a series of weird communications and office jag-offity. We don’t see the Janus job working out. The next headline is the exiled Bond King takes his massive wealth, his bonds and his new cat to the beach and retires.
The SP daily pattern hit the upside at 2003.75. The weekly (coming off the last down pattern week) has an upside target of 2008.75
The 5 yr Note had a black diamond (upside and downside pattern in same session) yesterday on the Fed….avoid it.
EDM6 and EDM17 trade poorly reflecting 1.63 and 2.63 respectively. Dots way higher.
from Bloomberg News:
This would be Ohio State’s second century offer. In 2011, it became the first public school to issue 100-year taxable debt when it sold $500 million. In earlier issues, Walt Disney Co. (DIS) sold centuries in 1993 and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey followed a year later. Yale University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have sold centuries into the corporate market. So has railroad Norfolk Southern Corp.
Ohio State is determining whether to issue taxable bonds due in 2114 or tax-free securities due in 30 years, Papadakis said. The Cleveland Clinic borrowed Sept. 11 via the corporate market at an interest rate of 4.86 percent for a century, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
While historically low yields are luring issuers, some investors are balking at longer debt.
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, is shifting to 10- to 15-year bonds from longer maturities, Peter Hayes, the company’s head of municipal debt, said in a Sept. 10 report. Fidelity Investments is also focusing on intermediate debt, said Kevin Ramundo, a money manager who helps oversee its $28.6 billion of state and local securities.
And TeeVee’s telling you about the Fed changing some words.
Forward Guidance has created a new designer drug for the pocket protector crowd – bets when FG will change. Deferred Eurodollars have dropped about 20 ticks since our post last Monday on language change. As Matt Boesler points out today on BBG, the herd is buying puts.
This shows the failure of FG at the Fed. Prodding the market to “price out” any probability of change has led to a massive pass line bet on that inevitable change. The Fed now can either “pay the line” or create a communal bummer around the table. The sad truth is the futures strip no longer provides insight to the Fed about participant expectations. Mathletes and Quants spend their days calculating the cost of wagering on a word change. American exceptional-ism on parade.
One thing everyone, including the Fed, knows: When they do change, the market will over-react. And the crack heads will make another bet.