Classical Thursday


30 minute atr
daily pivots
weekly pivots
upside retracements
downside retracements
coiling
regression channels
price support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
08:30 Durable Goods Orders (Consensus 2.0% v Prior 2.2%)
          Jobless Claims (Consensus 313 K v Prior 304K)
09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (Consensus 8 v Prior 10)
          3 Month Bill Announcement
          6 Month Bill Announcement
          52 Week Bill Announcement
          2 Year FRN Announcement
13:00 7 Year Note Auction
16:30 Fed Balance Sheet
          Money Supply
POMO:-
 
10:15 – 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $0.45 – $0.75 billion

Classical Wednesday


30 minute atr

daily pivots

weekly pivots

upside retracements

downside retracements

flag formation

regression channels

price support and resistance levels
On the economic calendar:-
 
07:00 MBA Purchase Applications
09:45 PMI Manufacturing Index Flash (Consensus 56.3 v Prior 55.5)
10:00 New Home Sales (Consensus 445K v Prior 440 K)
10:30 EIA Petroleum Status Report
13:00 5 year Note Auction
POMO:-
 
10:00 – 11:15 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $2.00 – $2.50 billion

 

A Funny Thing Happened..

on the way to the crisis…. boring stability.

Way back, oh 2 or 3 business cycles and a week ago, the promoted meme (started by-with all due respect- Art Cashin) was that the yield on the 10 year Note was falling and thus a harbinger of impending doom. My screen showed a Note that had quivered slightly above and below the same rate since Feb. I wondered if my data feed was down.

Trading now on a second day of unchanged value with a host of straddle and strangle selling in the options pit, perhaps Wed will bring some movement. For now, the dealer has played 125-122 and everyone is back to betting “inside.” The economic risk is stability that atrophies to stagnation rather than traction. We still tilt toward traction, for now.

The community of bubble pointer-outers is growing rapidly. We had steered clear of the crowd until yesterday. The cluster of insignificance that is renting your house (room, couch) out hit the market yesterday. Air B and B had a ton of silly money thrown at it that put its valuation at 10B. Now valued at more than Hyatt, Penny Pritzker was seen spitting her martini out at the bar at Gibson’s when the news came across the wire. I don’t subscribe to the view that this means the Fed should tighten BUT “halting” should replace tapering if this activity is now “risk on.”

Classical Tuesday


30 minute atr

daily pivots

weekly pivots

upside retracements

downside retracments

forming a falg

regression channels

price support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
 
07:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:55 Redbook
09:00 FHFA House Price Index (Consensus 0.3% v Prior 0.5%)
10:00 Existing Home Sales (Consensus 4.56 M v Prior 4.60 M)
          Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Consensus 0 v Prior -7)
11:30 4 Week Bill AUction
13:00 2 Year Note Auction
POMO:-
 
10:15 – 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $0.90 – $1.15 billion

 

Classical Monday


30 minute atr

daily pivots

weekly pivots

upside retracements

downside retracements

regression channels

price support and resistance levels
On the economic calendar:-
 
08:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Consensus 0.20 v Prior 0.14)
10:00 Leading Indicators (Consensus 0.7% v Prior 0.5%)
11:00 4 Week Bill Announcement
11:30 3 Month Bill Auction
          6 Month Bill Auction
POMO:-
 
10:15 – 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $3.25 – $4.00 billion