Classical Friday

30 minute atr
240 minute atr
daily pivots
weekly pivots
upside retracements
downside retracements
regression channels
support and resistance
roll gap
On the economic calendar:-
08:30 GDP (Consensus 2.1% v Prior 2.6%)
09:45 Chicago PMI (Consensus 58.7 v Prior 59.4)
10:00 Consumer Sentiment (Consensus 94.0 v Prior 93.6)
          Pending Home Sales (Consensus 2.0% v Prior -3.7%)
15:00 Farm Prices
Speaking today:-
William Dudley, Loretta Masters and Stanley Fischer participate in the US Monetary Policy Forum 2015 Annual Conference in Chicago

Selling the Storyline

"In general we look for a new law by the following process. First, you guess. Don't laugh, this is the most important step. Then you compute the consequences. Compare the consequences to experience. If it disagrees with experience, the guess is wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science (and for me, trading) It doesn't matter how beautiful your guess is or how smart you are or what your name is. If it disagrees with experience, it's WRONG. That's all there is."

Richard Feynman

Classical Thursday

30 minute atr

240 minute atr

daily pivots

weekly pivots

upside retracements

downside retracements

regression channels

support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
08:30 Consumer Price Index (Consensus -0.6% v Prior -0.4%)
          Durable Goods Orders (Consensus 2.0% v Prior -3.4%)
          Jobless Claims (Consensus 290 K v Prior 283 K)
09:00 FHFA House Price Index (Consensus 0.5% v Prior 0.8%)
09:45 Bloomberg Consumer Confidence Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (Consensus 3 v Prior 3)
          3 Month Bill Announcement
          6 Month Bill Announcement
          52 Week Bill Announcement
13:00 7 Year Note Auction
16:30 Fed Balance Sheet
          Money Supply
Speaking today:-
12:40 Dennis Lockhart

Classical Wednesday

30 minute atr
240 minute atr
daily pivots
weekly pivots
upside retracements
downside retracements
regression channels
support and resistance

 On the economic calendar:-

07:00 MBA Purchase Applications
10:00 New Home Sales (Consensus 471 K v Prior 481 K)
10:30 EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:30 2 Year FRN Note Auction
13:00 5 Year Note Auction

Speaking today:-

10:00 Janet Yellen

Mute the Fed

The hue and cry from the "protectors" of citizen's rights to "Audit the Fed" is trending faster than NPH in tighty-whitey's. Here's a better idea - Mute the Fed and reboot the concepts of consequence and loss to the capital structure.

I received an email from an old friend and mentor the other day that was a stream of consciousness series of questions. Most, I and he, had long ago formulated the answers to. One, stood out in the "choir-preaching" however: When did the divorce between faulty thinking/poor decision making and negative consequences take place? The answer, in my mind, is shortly after the Fed decided to tell you what they were doing.

The Fed Chair is now just the Mayor of Lake Wobegon, were everyone wins and all the market participants are above average.  The near month long retreat in bond prices is only the latest example. After spending the first month of the year listening to a Whitman's Sampler of convoluted and hack reasons for owning long dated securities, the 3 week (and longest since Taper Tantrum) slip has - we are to believe - harmed no one. I have one word to interject : CHALLENGE.

Maybe, just maybe, what Ms Yellen was trying to say today - in between the moronic "Audit" theme - was someday soon market participants will need to think for themselves again. That the concept of price discovery will provide policy makers with needed feedback on the state of the world. That you, young Titan of the Universe, will be introduced for the first time in your vaulted career to a little ditty called LOSS.

Classical Tuesday

30 minute atr

240 minute atr

daily pivots

weekly pivots

upside retrtacements

downside retracements

regression channels

support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
08:55 Redbook
09:00 Case-Shiller HPI (Consensus 0.5% v Prior 0.7%)
09:45 PMI Services Flash (Consensus 54.2 v Prior 54.0)
10:00 Consumer Confidence (Consensus 99.1 v Prior 102.9)
          Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Consensus 6 v Prior 6)
          State Street Investor Confidence Index
11:30 4 Week Bill Auction
13:00 2 Year Note Auction
Speaking today:-
10:00 Janet Yellen