Classical Wednesday

 30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 upside retracements
 downside retracements
 regression channels
price support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
07:00 MBA Purchase Applications
08:30 Consumer Price Index (Consensus 0.0% v Prior 0.1%)
           Current Account (Consensus $-114.0 B v Prior $-111.2 B)
10:00 Housing Market Index (Consensus 56 v Prior 55)
10:30 EIA Petroleum Status Report
14:00 FOMC Meeting Announcement (Consensus 0 to 0.25% v Prior 0 to 0.25%)
          FOMC Forecasts
          Chair Press Conference
POMO:-
None today

4.86 for 100 Years

from Bloomberg News:

Century Club

This would be Ohio State’s second century offer. In 2011, it became the first public school to issue 100-year taxable debt when it sold $500 million. In earlier issues, Walt Disney Co. (DIS) sold centuries in 1993 and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey followed a year later. Yale University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have sold centuries into the corporate market. So has railroad Norfolk Southern Corp.

Ohio State is determining whether to issue taxable bonds due in 2114 or tax-free securities due in 30 years, Papadakis said. The Cleveland Clinic borrowed Sept. 11 via the corporate market at an interest rate of 4.86 percent for a century, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

While historically low yields are luring issuers, some investors are balking at longer debt.

BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, is shifting to 10- to 15-year bonds from longer maturities, Peter Hayes, the company’s head of municipal debt, said in a Sept. 10 report. Fidelity Investments is also focusing on intermediate debt, said Kevin Ramundo, a money manager who helps oversee its $28.6 billion of state and local securities.

And TeeVee’s telling you about the Fed changing some words.

Classical Tuesday

 30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 upside retracements
 downside retracements
 regression channels
price support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
FOMC Meeting begins
07:45 ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
08:55 Redbook
09:00 Treasury International Capital
11:30 4 Week Bill Auction
          52 Week Bill Auction
POMO:-
10:15 – 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $2.00 – $2.50 billion

Crack for Quants

Forward Guidance has created a new designer drug for the pocket protector crowd – bets when FG will change. Deferred Eurodollars have dropped about 20 ticks since our post last Monday on language change. As Matt Boesler points out today on BBG, the herd is buying puts.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-15/options-show-traders-see-faster-rate-rise-ahead-of-fed-meeting.html

This shows the failure of FG at the Fed. Prodding the market to “price out” any probability of change has led to a massive pass line bet on that inevitable change. The Fed now can either “pay the line” or create a communal bummer around the table. The sad truth is the futures strip no longer provides insight to the Fed about participant expectations. Mathletes and Quants spend their days calculating the cost of wagering on a word change. American exceptional-ism on parade.

One thing everyone, including the Fed, knows: When they do change, the market will over-react. And the crack heads will make another bet.

Classical Monday

 30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 upside retracements

 downside retracements

regression channels
price support and resistance
 
On the economic calendar:-
08:30 Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Consensus 15.9 v Prior 14.69)
09:15 Industrial Production (Consensus 0.3% v Prior 0.4%)
11:00 4 Week Bill Announcement
11:30 3 Month Bill Auction
          6 Month Bill Auction
POMO:-
10:15 – 11:00 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases between $0.95 – $1.15 billion

Classical Friday

30 minute atr
 daily pivots
 weekly pivots
 upside retracements
 downside retracements
 regression channels

 

price support and resistance
On the economic calendar:-
08:30 Retail Sales (Consensus 0.6% v Prior 0.0%)
          Export Prices (Consensus -0.1% v Prior 0.0%)
          Import Prices (Consensus -1.0% v Prior -0.2%)
09:55 Consumer Sentiment (Consensus 83.4 v Prior 82.5)
10:00 Business Inventories (Consensus 0.4% v Prior 0.4%)
POMO:-
None today